Guns Figure

Willaim Thurber - PhD Student thurber at FMGMT.MGMT.UTORONTO.CA
Thu Sep 14 09:16:22 MDT 1995

Darin and other NRAers--
Just a few questions on this study.
First, the numbers reported are decreases, but decreases from what,
the previous year, some other earlier time (NRA's critique of CDC), or
compared to unfair +/or unfavourable states in the same year.
Second, the descriptions of the crimes do not match.  I think that
violent crime in favourable states is the same as firearm violent crime in
fair states, but I can't be sure.
Third, how many categories did NRA use and how many states in each category?
You may recall from your college stats that any sample with less than 30
observations is highly susceptible to random effects that are often
reported mistaken for significant results.  If NRA used 4 categories the
expected number of states in each category would be 12.5, not impossible
to draw conclusions,  but certainly more difficult.
Forth, notwithstanding the sample size, the results seem to trend in
favour of more gun control:
violent crime   -22 in favourable states -29 in fair states
homicide        -31 "      "        "    -38 "    "    "
robbery         _36 "      "        "    (not reported)
agg. assault    -14 "      "        "    -38 "     "    "
Fifth, they do not report their findings in states with unfair and/or
unfavourable laws, this prevents the type of complete analysis I would
like to see.
On Thu, 14 Sep 1995, Darin H. Deem wrote:
> Thought one or two of you might like this data.  Looks good to me.
> -Darin
> >      In 1993, the most recent year for which crime data are
> >available from the latest data from the FBI Uniform Crime Reports,
> >states with favorable right to carry laws had a 22% lower overall
> >violent crime rate, a 31% lower homicide rate, a 36% lower robbery
> >rate, and a 14% lower aggravated assault rate than states that
> >severely restrict or deny the right to carry firearms.  States with
> >fair carry laws had a 29% lower overall firearm violent crime rate, a
> >38% lower total firearm homicide rate, a 41% lower handgun homicide
> >rate, a 38% lower firearm robbery rate, and a 19% lower firearm
> >aggravated assault rate than restrictive states.
> >
> >Bogus "Study" Debunked
> >
> >       Yet those opposed to the right of law abiding citizens to
> >defend themselves will go to any lengths. In March, 1995, certain
> >researchers at the University of Maryland released a study, paid for
> >with tax dollars by the federal Centers for Disease Control and
> >Prevention, which often uses taxpayer money to fund anti-gun studies.
> >The "study" claimed that gun homicide rates increased in Miami,
> >Jacksonville and Tampa after Florida's carry law went into effect.
> >Time magazine reported, however, that Florida Dept. of Law Enforcement
> >Commissioner James T. Moore "says he has his doubts about the Maryland
> >figures." For good reason. Total homicide rates declined 10%, 18%, and
> >20%, respectively, in those metropolitan areas. The "study's" authors
> >calculated Jacksonville and Tampa homicide trends from the early
> >1970s, when homicide rates were lower than today, to create the false
> >impression that Florida's 1987 carry law caused homicide to rise. But
> >they calculated Miami's trend from 1983 forward, since homicide rates
> >before 1983 were higher, and their inclusion in the comparison would
> >have shown that the city's homicide rate decreased.
> >
> >       Moreover, none of the homicides addressed by the "study" were
> >committed by carry license holders; the anti-gun researchers didn't
> >even distinguish between homicides that occurred in situations where a
> >license would be required to carry a firearm, versus those where a
> >license would not be required. The "researchers'" use of "anti-gunner
> >math" comes as no surprise. In a previous study, the same group
> >claimed that Washington, D.C.'s homicide rate decreased sharply after
> >its 1977 handgun ban. The fact is, D.C.'s homicide rate tripled after
> >the ban.
> >
> Source: NRA

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