putnamd at ATLODBS1.HAYES.COM
Wed Feb 21 13:52:48 MST 1996
> Those two groups probably do support Buchanan. What percent did Perot
> pull last time? 15 - 19%, I've read. They're probably going for Pat at this
> time. What's the strength of the Christian coilition? Are some of them
> previous Perot voters? Who knows the answer to this? If they are different
> folks, Buchanan could probably bank 25-30%, just from those two groups! Add in
> more undecideds; add in the Republicans who are presently critical or reserved
> during the primary runs; add in those disenchanted with Clinton, who will never
> vote for him again. Now we're getting someplace. I'm not a political
> scientist, but I think you may continue to be surprised, as even I am and the
> press is, by Buchanan's support. The saga continues . . .
Excellent analysis, I hadn't thought of it in those terms. In fact the one
constant (other than inconsistancy) with the Clinton's is that he has never
varied in the polls of the electorate (not population at large) from the
43% that got him elected. If there is no third party candidate then the
difference between winning and losing will be the undecideds, Perot and
anti-Clinton democrat vote. With your core of 25-30% then Buchanan only needs
a little more than half the undecideds, Perot and anti-Clinton democrats to win.
Statistically, each will get half and if there were ever a Clinton-Buchanan
debate Pat would win handily, change the statistical distribution and quite
likely win the election. Using the same analysis with Dole the swing vote
would likely go the opposite way after a debate and Clinton would win.
Dennis Putnam, Manager
Technical Planning and Services
Hayes Microcomputer Products, Inc.
Opinions expressed are mine and should not be viewed as an official positon of
Hayes or its management.
"Our Founding Fathers did not create our civil liberties ... They safegarded
them." Tanya Mataksa, NRA-ILA Executive Director.
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