Brokenjaw and my predictions

Dennis Putnam dap1 at MINDSPRING.COM
Tue Oct 31 19:25:20 MST 2000

Hash: SHA1

At 07:12 PM 10/31/00 -0500, you wrote:
>I predict that Bush will win, that Repubs will hold on to a narrow
>lead in both the Senate and House, and that HILLARY! will win in NY
>(can you believe the idiots up there?!)

Have you seen the latest polls from NY and have you looked at the
trends over the last several weeks? Hillery has remained constant at
42-43% but Lazio has begun rise in the polls and is now up to 44-45%.
Dick Morris makes a very strong case in that the victory will depend
on NYC voter turnout. If 30-31% of the total statewide vote comes
from NYC, Hillery will win. If the NYC vote represents 29% or less of
the total statewide vote Lazio wins. The >30% number represents a
very heavy NYC turnout, perhaps a record turnout is necessary. That
is unlikely to happen since Hillery has been unable to villify Lazio
and scare NYC minorities to the polls. There is hope that Hillery and
Gore will not be invited to the inaugral ball.

On the other hand the Georgia Democrat senate appointee, Zell Miller,
will probably win losing Senator Coverdell's seat to the Democrats.
Although conservative as governor, he has never been elected to
national office and will be a Democrat lacky as is Cleland. You in NY
have reason to be hopeful while we in GA do not.

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