[Rushtalk] Six Months Out: The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators in 2018

John Quayle blueoval57 at verizon.net
Thu May 24 13:55:26 MDT 2018


/*Bob Casey should've made this list. Lou Barletta is going to mop the 
floor with him!*/


On 5/24/2018 9:33 AM, Carl Spitzer {C Juno} wrote:
> *Search*
> *May 21, 2018*
>
> *Politics*
> *Six Months Out: The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators in 2018*
> *Nevada Republican Dean Heller remains in top spot*
> *Posted May 10, 2018 5:05 AM*
> *Simone Pathé*
> *@sfpathe*
> *Blankenship to Run as Third-Party Senate Candidate in WV Who’s Going to*
> *Challenge Karen Handel Without Jon Ossoff? A Clash of Experiences in*
> *Kentucky’s 6th District Democratic Primary*
> *Bridget Bowman*
> *@bridgetbhc*
> *DCCC Raises $11.2 Million in AprilTargeting a Blue Texan: Will National*
> *Democrats Pay a Price?Podcast: Keystone Races Now Set in Keystone State*
>
> *Sen. Dean Heller is the only Republican running for re-election in a*
> *state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)*
>
> *Senate Democrats are still defending 10 states that President Donald*
> *Trump won in 2016, but six months out from Election Day, the most*
> *vulnerable senator remains a Republican.*
>
> *Nevada Sen. Dean Heller no longer faces a primary threat, but he’s the*
> *only Republican up for re-election in a state Hillary Clinton won, and*
> *in this national environment that’s a tricky place to be.*
>
> *The Democrats’ odds of flipping a few GOP-held open seats in Arizona and*
> *Tennessee have increased over the past six months, but this list — like*
> *the one we did a year out from Election Day — ranks incumbents most*
> *likely to lose — not seats most likely to flip. That means nine of the*
> *10 senators are Democrats, with the second and third spots remaining*
> *unchanged.*
>
> *North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin III*
> *have traded places, with Heitkamp now at fourth and Manchin at fifth.*
> *Democrats would have been happy to face Don Blankenship in the West*
> *Virginia Senate race, but they’re also not getting Rep. Evan Jenkins,*
> *whom they spent nearly $2 million against in the primary.*
>
> *Watch: Iowa’s Blum Now Most Vulnerable House Member, Nelson Moves Up*
> *List for Senate*
>
> *The biggest change is Florida Sen. Bill Nelson moving up from eighth to*
> *sixth with Gov. Rick Scott’s entry into the race. That pushes Montana*
> *Sen. Jon Tester and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown down a spot each to seventh*
> *and eighth, respectively.*
>
> *As always, this list is compiled after consultation with strategists*
> *from both sides of the aisle and the race ratings from Inside Elections*
> *with Nathan L. Gonzales.*
>
> *SENATE1-HELLER*
>
> *Heller remains at the top spot because he’s the only Republican up for*
> *re-election in a state Clinton carried in 2016, and Democrats have a*
> *favorable national environment this cycle. Heller has one less hurdle*
> *with perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian dropping his primary challenge*
> *to run for the House, at Trump’s urging. Democrats contend Heller moving*
> *toward Trump while Tarkanian was in the race could come back to haunt*
> *him. They have coalesced around Rep. Jacky Rosen, who is already up on*
> *television. (She does have a self-funding primary challenger.) Rosen*
> *raised more than twice as much as Heller in the first quarter of the*
> *year, pulling in $2.6 million to Heller’s $1.1 million. But Heller still*
> *has a cash on hand advantage.*
>
> *Want insight more often? Get Roll Call in your inbox*
>
> *SENATE2-MCCASKILL*
>
> *Although some Republicans have fretted that likely GOP challenger Josh*
> *Hawley wasn’t living up to expectations, McCaskill is still one of the*
> *most vulnerable incumbents. Hawley’s fundraising caused some concern,*
> *but he also shook up his team, bringing in experienced GOP fundraiser*
> *Katie Walsh, according to Politico. Some operatives say Hawley could be*
> *hurt by his connection to disgraced Missouri GOP Gov. Eric Greitens, but*
> *Hawley’s team says the scandals won’t affect him. Republicans say*
> *Missouri is moving to the right, and point to Trump’s continued*
> *popularity in the Show-Me State.*
>
> *SENATE3-DONNELLY*
>
> *Former state Rep. Mike Braun, who touts himself as a businessman*
> *outsider in the mold of Trump, is taking on the first-term Democratic*
> *senator. In a big Trump state, Donnelly’s got his work cut out for him,*
> *as Braun — who’s got plenty of his own money — will try to tie him to*
> *Washington, much like he did his two primary opponents. But Braun’s*
> *state legislative record and business background comes with its own*
> *vulnerabilities, and Donnelly has proved willing to support the*
> *president at times.*
>
> *SENATE4-HEITKAMP*
>
> *Heitkamp is the only statewide Democratic official in North Dakota, and*
> *Republicans believe the state’s shift to the right means she’s in*
> *serious trouble this year. Her challenger, GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer, has*
> *the advantage of not facing a primary. As the state’s at-large member,*
> *he also enjoys high name recognition. Heitkamp does still have a cash on*
> *hand advantage with $5.4 million in the bank, compared to Cramer’s $1.9*
> *million. Democrats believe Heitkamp has a strong personal brand in the*
> *state as an independent lawmaker.*
>
> *SENATE5-MANCHIN*
>
> *Facing state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in November, Manchin’s in*
> *for a tough race in a state that went big for Trump. Morrisey will tout*
> *his lawsuits against the Obama administration and hammer Manchin on his*
> *support for Clinton in 2016. But Morrisey’s not without his own ties to*
> *Washington and the pharmaceutical industry, which could complicate the*
> *GOP playbook. The senator has a significant cash-on-hand advantage.*
>
> *SENATE6-NELSON*
>
> *The three-term senator moves up the list because of the entrance of Gov.*
> *Rick Scott into this race. With statewide name identification and*
> *endless personal resources, Scott poses a real threat to Nelson, even in*
> *a state that’s more Democratic than the home states of some other*
> *senators appearing lower on the list. Nelson ended the first quarter*
> *with $10.7 million, while Scott hasn’t had to file a fundraising report*
> *yet.*
>
> *SENATE7-TESTER*
>
> *Trump took aim at Tester, even calling on him to resign, over his*
> *resistance to the president’s VA nominee. Along with Tester’s vote*
> *against a stopgap funding measure that would have reopened the*
> *government earlier this year, Republicans think they have a strong case*
> *against the former DSCC chairman. Tester’s never taken more than 50*
> *percent in his prior Senate races. But it’s also possible that as the*
> *senior Democrat on the Veterans Affairs Committee, Tester has helped*
> *solidify his own brand in Big Sky Country by doing what he thought was*
> *best for veterans. It’s looking like he’ll face fellow flat-top Matt*
> *Rosendale, who will likely be attacked as a carpetbagger from Maryland.*
> *Tester ended the first quarter with nearly $7 million to Rosendale’s*
> *$541,000.*
>
> *SENATE8-BALDWIN*
>
> *Wisconsin has attracted the most outside spending of the Senate races so*
> *far, in part because Republicans view Baldwin as vulnerable on issues*
> *relating to veterans’ health care. But Democrats are watching for a*
> *potentially ugly primary between the two GOP candidates: state Sen. Leah*
> *Vukmir and Marine veteran Kevin Nicolson. Baldwin has kept her focus on*
> *the general election, airing five television ads so far. Republicans*
> *still believe she is very vulnerable and too liberal for the state (she*
> *was the only red state Democrat to sign on to Medicare-for-All*
> *legislation).*
>
> *SENATE9-BROWN*
>
> *One major change since the last iteration of this list: Rep. James B.*
> *Renacci is now the Republican nominee here, not state Treasurer Josh*
> *Mandel, as was long expected. Brown’s running for re-election in a state*
> *that’s trending away from Democrats, but Renacci — a wealthy congressman*
> *and former registered lobbyist — should quiet attacks on Brown for being*
> *part of Washington. Although Renacci has plenty of his own resources,*
> *Republicans haven’t been impressed with his fundraising. His latest FEC*
> *filing shows $4.2 million in the bank to Brown’s $13.3 million.*
>
> *SENATE10-CASEY*
>
> *Republicans and Democrats acknowledge that Casey is one of the least*
> *vulnerable Democratic senators running in states Trump carried in 2016.*
> *One of Trump’s early allies, GOP Rep. Lou Barletta, appears to be the*
> *likely nominee. Casey has broken fundraising records with more than $10*
> *million on hand — the most of any Senate candidate in the state’s*
> *history according to Casey’s campaign. Barletta had $1.3 million on hand*
> *at the end of this year’s first quarter.*
>
> *Graphics by Sara Wise*
>
> *Watch: Which House Races Are the Parties Targeting? Look to the Money,*
> *the TV Ad Money*
>
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> *Topics: 2018 at-the-races democrats elections politics republicans*
> *Arizona Barack Obama Bill Nelson Business Campaign Finance Campaigns*
> *Dean Heller democrats Donald J. Trump DSCC Elections Environment Evan H*
> *Jenkins Executive Branch Florida health care Heidi Heitkamp House*
> *independents James B Renacci Joe Manchin III Jon Tester Kevin Cramer*
> *Keystone XL Pipeline Lobbying Lou Barletta Maryland Medicare Missouri*
> *montana Nevada North Dakota*
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