[Rushtalk] Six Months Out: The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators in 2018

Tom Matiska tom.matiska at att.net
Thu May 24 19:17:34 MDT 2018


Casey is #10
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John Quayle <blueoval57 at verizon.net> wrote:

>/*Bob Casey should've made this list. Lou Barletta is going to mop the 
>floor with him!*/
>
>
>On 5/24/2018 9:33 AM, Carl Spitzer {C Juno} wrote:
>> *Search*
>> *May 21, 2018*
>>
>> *Politics*
>> *Six Months Out: The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators in 2018*
>> *Nevada Republican Dean Heller remains in top spot*
>> *Posted May 10, 2018 5:05 AM*
>> *Simone Pathé*
>> *@sfpathe*
>> *Blankenship to Run as Third-Party Senate Candidate in WV Who’s Going to*
>> *Challenge Karen Handel Without Jon Ossoff? A Clash of Experiences in*
>> *Kentucky’s 6th District Democratic Primary*
>> *Bridget Bowman*
>> *@bridgetbhc*
>> *DCCC Raises $11.2 Million in AprilTargeting a Blue Texan: Will National*
>> *Democrats Pay a Price?Podcast: Keystone Races Now Set in Keystone State*
>>
>> *Sen. Dean Heller is the only Republican running for re-election in a*
>> *state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)*
>>
>> *Senate Democrats are still defending 10 states that President Donald*
>> *Trump won in 2016, but six months out from Election Day, the most*
>> *vulnerable senator remains a Republican.*
>>
>> *Nevada Sen. Dean Heller no longer faces a primary threat, but he’s the*
>> *only Republican up for re-election in a state Hillary Clinton won, and*
>> *in this national environment that’s a tricky place to be.*
>>
>> *The Democrats’ odds of flipping a few GOP-held open seats in Arizona and*
>> *Tennessee have increased over the past six months, but this list — like*
>> *the one we did a year out from Election Day — ranks incumbents most*
>> *likely to lose — not seats most likely to flip. That means nine of the*
>> *10 senators are Democrats, with the second and third spots remaining*
>> *unchanged.*
>>
>> *North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin III*
>> *have traded places, with Heitkamp now at fourth and Manchin at fifth.*
>> *Democrats would have been happy to face Don Blankenship in the West*
>> *Virginia Senate race, but they’re also not getting Rep. Evan Jenkins,*
>> *whom they spent nearly $2 million against in the primary.*
>>
>> *Watch: Iowa’s Blum Now Most Vulnerable House Member, Nelson Moves Up*
>> *List for Senate*
>>
>> *The biggest change is Florida Sen. Bill Nelson moving up from eighth to*
>> *sixth with Gov. Rick Scott’s entry into the race. That pushes Montana*
>> *Sen. Jon Tester and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown down a spot each to seventh*
>> *and eighth, respectively.*
>>
>> *As always, this list is compiled after consultation with strategists*
>> *from both sides of the aisle and the race ratings from Inside Elections*
>> *with Nathan L. Gonzales.*
>>
>> *SENATE1-HELLER*
>>
>> *Heller remains at the top spot because he’s the only Republican up for*
>> *re-election in a state Clinton carried in 2016, and Democrats have a*
>> *favorable national environment this cycle. Heller has one less hurdle*
>> *with perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian dropping his primary challenge*
>> *to run for the House, at Trump’s urging. Democrats contend Heller moving*
>> *toward Trump while Tarkanian was in the race could come back to haunt*
>> *him. They have coalesced around Rep. Jacky Rosen, who is already up on*
>> *television. (She does have a self-funding primary challenger.) Rosen*
>> *raised more than twice as much as Heller in the first quarter of the*
>> *year, pulling in $2.6 million to Heller’s $1.1 million. But Heller still*
>> *has a cash on hand advantage.*
>>
>> *Want insight more often? Get Roll Call in your inbox*
>>
>> *SENATE2-MCCASKILL*
>>
>> *Although some Republicans have fretted that likely GOP challenger Josh*
>> *Hawley wasn’t living up to expectations, McCaskill is still one of the*
>> *most vulnerable incumbents. Hawley’s fundraising caused some concern,*
>> *but he also shook up his team, bringing in experienced GOP fundraiser*
>> *Katie Walsh, according to Politico. Some operatives say Hawley could be*
>> *hurt by his connection to disgraced Missouri GOP Gov. Eric Greitens, but*
>> *Hawley’s team says the scandals won’t affect him. Republicans say*
>> *Missouri is moving to the right, and point to Trump’s continued*
>> *popularity in the Show-Me State.*
>>
>> *SENATE3-DONNELLY*
>>
>> *Former state Rep. Mike Braun, who touts himself as a businessman*
>> *outsider in the mold of Trump, is taking on the first-term Democratic*
>> *senator. In a big Trump state, Donnelly’s got his work cut out for him,*
>> *as Braun — who’s got plenty of his own money — will try to tie him to*
>> *Washington, much like he did his two primary opponents. But Braun’s*
>> *state legislative record and business background comes with its own*
>> *vulnerabilities, and Donnelly has proved willing to support the*
>> *president at times.*
>>
>> *SENATE4-HEITKAMP*
>>
>> *Heitkamp is the only statewide Democratic official in North Dakota, and*
>> *Republicans believe the state’s shift to the right means she’s in*
>> *serious trouble this year. Her challenger, GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer, has*
>> *the advantage of not facing a primary. As the state’s at-large member,*
>> *he also enjoys high name recognition. Heitkamp does still have a cash on*
>> *hand advantage with $5.4 million in the bank, compared to Cramer’s $1.9*
>> *million. Democrats believe Heitkamp has a strong personal brand in the*
>> *state as an independent lawmaker.*
>>
>> *SENATE5-MANCHIN*
>>
>> *Facing state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in November, Manchin’s in*
>> *for a tough race in a state that went big for Trump. Morrisey will tout*
>> *his lawsuits against the Obama administration and hammer Manchin on his*
>> *support for Clinton in 2016. But Morrisey’s not without his own ties to*
>> *Washington and the pharmaceutical industry, which could complicate the*
>> *GOP playbook. The senator has a significant cash-on-hand advantage.*
>>
>> *SENATE6-NELSON*
>>
>> *The three-term senator moves up the list because of the entrance of Gov.*
>> *Rick Scott into this race. With statewide name identification and*
>> *endless personal resources, Scott poses a real threat to Nelson, even in*
>> *a state that’s more Democratic than the home states of some other*
>> *senators appearing lower on the list. Nelson ended the first quarter*
>> *with $10.7 million, while Scott hasn’t had to file a fundraising report*
>> *yet.*
>>
>> *SENATE7-TESTER*
>>
>> *Trump took aim at Tester, even calling on him to resign, over his*
>> *resistance to the president’s VA nominee. Along with Tester’s vote*
>> *against a stopgap funding measure that would have reopened the*
>> *government earlier this year, Republicans think they have a strong case*
>> *against the former DSCC chairman. Tester’s never taken more than 50*
>> *percent in his prior Senate races. But it’s also possible that as the*
>> *senior Democrat on the Veterans Affairs Committee, Tester has helped*
>> *solidify his own brand in Big Sky Country by doing what he thought was*
>> *best for veterans. It’s looking like he’ll face fellow flat-top Matt*
>> *Rosendale, who will likely be attacked as a carpetbagger from Maryland.*
>> *Tester ended the first quarter with nearly $7 million to Rosendale’s*
>> *$541,000.*
>>
>> *SENATE8-BALDWIN*
>>
>> *Wisconsin has attracted the most outside spending of the Senate races so*
>> *far, in part because Republicans view Baldwin as vulnerable on issues*
>> *relating to veterans’ health care. But Democrats are watching for a*
>> *potentially ugly primary between the two GOP candidates: state Sen. Leah*
>> *Vukmir and Marine veteran Kevin Nicolson. Baldwin has kept her focus on*
>> *the general election, airing five television ads so far. Republicans*
>> *still believe she is very vulnerable and too liberal for the state (she*
>> *was the only red state Democrat to sign on to Medicare-for-All*
>> *legislation).*
>>
>> *SENATE9-BROWN*
>>
>> *One major change since the last iteration of this list: Rep. James B.*
>> *Renacci is now the Republican nominee here, not state Treasurer Josh*
>> *Mandel, as was long expected. Brown’s running for re-election in a state*
>> *that’s trending away from Democrats, but Renacci — a wealthy congressman*
>> *and former registered lobbyist — should quiet attacks on Brown for being*
>> *part of Washington. Although Renacci has plenty of his own resources,*
>> *Republicans haven’t been impressed with his fundraising. His latest FEC*
>> *filing shows $4.2 million in the bank to Brown’s $13.3 million.*
>>
>> *SENATE10-CASEY*
>>
>> *Republicans and Democrats acknowledge that Casey is one of the least*
>> *vulnerable Democratic senators running in states Trump carried in 2016.*
>> *One of Trump’s early allies, GOP Rep. Lou Barletta, appears to be the*
>> *likely nominee. Casey has broken fundraising records with more than $10*
>> *million on hand — the most of any Senate candidate in the state’s*
>> *history according to Casey’s campaign. Barletta had $1.3 million on hand*
>> *at the end of this year’s first quarter.*
>>
>> *Graphics by Sara Wise*
>>
>> *Watch: Which House Races Are the Parties Targeting? Look to the Money,*
>> *the TV Ad Money*
>>
>> *Get breaking news alerts and more from Roll Call on your iPhone or your*
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>> *Topics: 2018 at-the-races democrats elections politics republicans*
>> *Arizona Barack Obama Bill Nelson Business Campaign Finance Campaigns*
>> *Dean Heller democrats Donald J. Trump DSCC Elections Environment Evan H*
>> *Jenkins Executive Branch Florida health care Heidi Heitkamp House*
>> *independents James B Renacci Joe Manchin III Jon Tester Kevin Cramer*
>> *Keystone XL Pipeline Lobbying Lou Barletta Maryland Medicare Missouri*
>> *montana Nevada North Dakota*
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>> *https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/six-months-10-vulnerable-senators-2018*
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