[Rushtalk] Six Months Out: The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators in 2018

John Quayle blueoval57 at verizon.net
Fri May 25 08:53:30 MDT 2018


/*Thanks, Tom......didn't see his name there. He isn't the pro-life lion 
his father was, that's for sure. That may be the issue on which he is 
most vulnerable. Still, in 26 years, his legislative record is abysmal, 
at best. */


On 5/24/2018 9:17 PM, Tom Matiska wrote:
> Casey is #10
> T-Mobile. America's First Nationwide 4G Network
>
> John Quayle <blueoval57 at verizon.net> wrote:
>
>> /*Bob Casey should've made this list. Lou Barletta is going to mop the
>> floor with him!*/
>>
>>
>> On 5/24/2018 9:33 AM, Carl Spitzer {C Juno} wrote:
>>> *Search*
>>> *May 21, 2018*
>>>
>>> *Politics*
>>> *Six Months Out: The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators in 2018*
>>> *Nevada Republican Dean Heller remains in top spot*
>>> *Posted May 10, 2018 5:05 AM*
>>> *Simone Pathé*
>>> *@sfpathe*
>>> *Blankenship to Run as Third-Party Senate Candidate in WV Who’s Going to*
>>> *Challenge Karen Handel Without Jon Ossoff? A Clash of Experiences in*
>>> *Kentucky’s 6th District Democratic Primary*
>>> *Bridget Bowman*
>>> *@bridgetbhc*
>>> *DCCC Raises $11.2 Million in AprilTargeting a Blue Texan: Will National*
>>> *Democrats Pay a Price?Podcast: Keystone Races Now Set in Keystone State*
>>>
>>> *Sen. Dean Heller is the only Republican running for re-election in a*
>>> *state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)*
>>>
>>> *Senate Democrats are still defending 10 states that President Donald*
>>> *Trump won in 2016, but six months out from Election Day, the most*
>>> *vulnerable senator remains a Republican.*
>>>
>>> *Nevada Sen. Dean Heller no longer faces a primary threat, but he’s the*
>>> *only Republican up for re-election in a state Hillary Clinton won, and*
>>> *in this national environment that’s a tricky place to be.*
>>>
>>> *The Democrats’ odds of flipping a few GOP-held open seats in Arizona and*
>>> *Tennessee have increased over the past six months, but this list — like*
>>> *the one we did a year out from Election Day — ranks incumbents most*
>>> *likely to lose — not seats most likely to flip. That means nine of the*
>>> *10 senators are Democrats, with the second and third spots remaining*
>>> *unchanged.*
>>>
>>> *North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin III*
>>> *have traded places, with Heitkamp now at fourth and Manchin at fifth.*
>>> *Democrats would have been happy to face Don Blankenship in the West*
>>> *Virginia Senate race, but they’re also not getting Rep. Evan Jenkins,*
>>> *whom they spent nearly $2 million against in the primary.*
>>>
>>> *Watch: Iowa’s Blum Now Most Vulnerable House Member, Nelson Moves Up*
>>> *List for Senate*
>>>
>>> *The biggest change is Florida Sen. Bill Nelson moving up from eighth to*
>>> *sixth with Gov. Rick Scott’s entry into the race. That pushes Montana*
>>> *Sen. Jon Tester and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown down a spot each to seventh*
>>> *and eighth, respectively.*
>>>
>>> *As always, this list is compiled after consultation with strategists*
>>> *from both sides of the aisle and the race ratings from Inside Elections*
>>> *with Nathan L. Gonzales.*
>>>
>>> *SENATE1-HELLER*
>>>
>>> *Heller remains at the top spot because he’s the only Republican up for*
>>> *re-election in a state Clinton carried in 2016, and Democrats have a*
>>> *favorable national environment this cycle. Heller has one less hurdle*
>>> *with perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian dropping his primary challenge*
>>> *to run for the House, at Trump’s urging. Democrats contend Heller moving*
>>> *toward Trump while Tarkanian was in the race could come back to haunt*
>>> *him. They have coalesced around Rep. Jacky Rosen, who is already up on*
>>> *television. (She does have a self-funding primary challenger.) Rosen*
>>> *raised more than twice as much as Heller in the first quarter of the*
>>> *year, pulling in $2.6 million to Heller’s $1.1 million. But Heller still*
>>> *has a cash on hand advantage.*
>>>
>>> *Want insight more often? Get Roll Call in your inbox*
>>>
>>> *SENATE2-MCCASKILL*
>>>
>>> *Although some Republicans have fretted that likely GOP challenger Josh*
>>> *Hawley wasn’t living up to expectations, McCaskill is still one of the*
>>> *most vulnerable incumbents. Hawley’s fundraising caused some concern,*
>>> *but he also shook up his team, bringing in experienced GOP fundraiser*
>>> *Katie Walsh, according to Politico. Some operatives say Hawley could be*
>>> *hurt by his connection to disgraced Missouri GOP Gov. Eric Greitens, but*
>>> *Hawley’s team says the scandals won’t affect him. Republicans say*
>>> *Missouri is moving to the right, and point to Trump’s continued*
>>> *popularity in the Show-Me State.*
>>>
>>> *SENATE3-DONNELLY*
>>>
>>> *Former state Rep. Mike Braun, who touts himself as a businessman*
>>> *outsider in the mold of Trump, is taking on the first-term Democratic*
>>> *senator. In a big Trump state, Donnelly’s got his work cut out for him,*
>>> *as Braun — who’s got plenty of his own money — will try to tie him to*
>>> *Washington, much like he did his two primary opponents. But Braun’s*
>>> *state legislative record and business background comes with its own*
>>> *vulnerabilities, and Donnelly has proved willing to support the*
>>> *president at times.*
>>>
>>> *SENATE4-HEITKAMP*
>>>
>>> *Heitkamp is the only statewide Democratic official in North Dakota, and*
>>> *Republicans believe the state’s shift to the right means she’s in*
>>> *serious trouble this year. Her challenger, GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer, has*
>>> *the advantage of not facing a primary. As the state’s at-large member,*
>>> *he also enjoys high name recognition. Heitkamp does still have a cash on*
>>> *hand advantage with $5.4 million in the bank, compared to Cramer’s $1.9*
>>> *million. Democrats believe Heitkamp has a strong personal brand in the*
>>> *state as an independent lawmaker.*
>>>
>>> *SENATE5-MANCHIN*
>>>
>>> *Facing state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in November, Manchin’s in*
>>> *for a tough race in a state that went big for Trump. Morrisey will tout*
>>> *his lawsuits against the Obama administration and hammer Manchin on his*
>>> *support for Clinton in 2016. But Morrisey’s not without his own ties to*
>>> *Washington and the pharmaceutical industry, which could complicate the*
>>> *GOP playbook. The senator has a significant cash-on-hand advantage.*
>>>
>>> *SENATE6-NELSON*
>>>
>>> *The three-term senator moves up the list because of the entrance of Gov.*
>>> *Rick Scott into this race. With statewide name identification and*
>>> *endless personal resources, Scott poses a real threat to Nelson, even in*
>>> *a state that’s more Democratic than the home states of some other*
>>> *senators appearing lower on the list. Nelson ended the first quarter*
>>> *with $10.7 million, while Scott hasn’t had to file a fundraising report*
>>> *yet.*
>>>
>>> *SENATE7-TESTER*
>>>
>>> *Trump took aim at Tester, even calling on him to resign, over his*
>>> *resistance to the president’s VA nominee. Along with Tester’s vote*
>>> *against a stopgap funding measure that would have reopened the*
>>> *government earlier this year, Republicans think they have a strong case*
>>> *against the former DSCC chairman. Tester’s never taken more than 50*
>>> *percent in his prior Senate races. But it’s also possible that as the*
>>> *senior Democrat on the Veterans Affairs Committee, Tester has helped*
>>> *solidify his own brand in Big Sky Country by doing what he thought was*
>>> *best for veterans. It’s looking like he’ll face fellow flat-top Matt*
>>> *Rosendale, who will likely be attacked as a carpetbagger from Maryland.*
>>> *Tester ended the first quarter with nearly $7 million to Rosendale’s*
>>> *$541,000.*
>>>
>>> *SENATE8-BALDWIN*
>>>
>>> *Wisconsin has attracted the most outside spending of the Senate races so*
>>> *far, in part because Republicans view Baldwin as vulnerable on issues*
>>> *relating to veterans’ health care. But Democrats are watching for a*
>>> *potentially ugly primary between the two GOP candidates: state Sen. Leah*
>>> *Vukmir and Marine veteran Kevin Nicolson. Baldwin has kept her focus on*
>>> *the general election, airing five television ads so far. Republicans*
>>> *still believe she is very vulnerable and too liberal for the state (she*
>>> *was the only red state Democrat to sign on to Medicare-for-All*
>>> *legislation).*
>>>
>>> *SENATE9-BROWN*
>>>
>>> *One major change since the last iteration of this list: Rep. James B.*
>>> *Renacci is now the Republican nominee here, not state Treasurer Josh*
>>> *Mandel, as was long expected. Brown’s running for re-election in a state*
>>> *that’s trending away from Democrats, but Renacci — a wealthy congressman*
>>> *and former registered lobbyist — should quiet attacks on Brown for being*
>>> *part of Washington. Although Renacci has plenty of his own resources,*
>>> *Republicans haven’t been impressed with his fundraising. His latest FEC*
>>> *filing shows $4.2 million in the bank to Brown’s $13.3 million.*
>>>
>>> *SENATE10-CASEY*
>>>
>>> *Republicans and Democrats acknowledge that Casey is one of the least*
>>> *vulnerable Democratic senators running in states Trump carried in 2016.*
>>> *One of Trump’s early allies, GOP Rep. Lou Barletta, appears to be the*
>>> *likely nominee. Casey has broken fundraising records with more than $10*
>>> *million on hand — the most of any Senate candidate in the state’s*
>>> *history according to Casey’s campaign. Barletta had $1.3 million on hand*
>>> *at the end of this year’s first quarter.*
>>>
>>> *Graphics by Sara Wise*
>>>
>>> *Watch: Which House Races Are the Parties Targeting? Look to the Money,*
>>> *the TV Ad Money*
>>>
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>>> *Topics: 2018 at-the-races democrats elections politics republicans*
>>> *Arizona Barack Obama Bill Nelson Business Campaign Finance Campaigns*
>>> *Dean Heller democrats Donald J. Trump DSCC Elections Environment Evan H*
>>> *Jenkins Executive Branch Florida health care Heidi Heitkamp House*
>>> *independents James B Renacci Joe Manchin III Jon Tester Kevin Cramer*
>>> *Keystone XL Pipeline Lobbying Lou Barletta Maryland Medicare Missouri*
>>> *montana Nevada North Dakota*
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