[Rushtalk] Six Months Out: The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators in 2018

Tom Matiska tom.matiska at att.net
Fri May 25 10:57:15 MDT 2018


No difference between Casey's  voting record and Pocahontas Warren.   Tom
 

    On Friday, May 25, 2018 10:53 AM, John Quayle <blueoval57 at verizon.net> wrote:
 

                       Thanks, Tom......didn't see his name there. He isn't the pro-life lion his father was, that's for sure. That may be the issue on which he is most vulnerable. Still, in 26 years, his legislative record is abysmal, at best. 
  
 On 5/24/2018 9:17 PM, Tom Matiska wrote:
  
 Casey is #10
T-Mobile. America's First Nationwide 4G Network

John Quayle <blueoval57 at verizon.net> wrote:

 
 /*Bob Casey should've made this list. Lou Barletta is going to mop the 
floor with him!*/


On 5/24/2018 9:33 AM, Carl Spitzer {C Juno} wrote:
 
 *Search*
*May 21, 2018*

*Politics*
*Six Months Out: The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators in 2018*
*Nevada Republican Dean Heller remains in top spot*
*Posted May 10, 2018 5:05 AM*
*Simone Pathé*
*@sfpathe*
*Blankenship to Run as Third-Party Senate Candidate in WV Who’s Going to*
*Challenge Karen Handel Without Jon Ossoff? A Clash of Experiences in*
*Kentucky’s 6th District Democratic Primary*
*Bridget Bowman*
*@bridgetbhc*
*DCCC Raises $11.2 Million in AprilTargeting a Blue Texan: Will National*
*Democrats Pay a Price?Podcast: Keystone Races Now Set in Keystone State*

*Sen. Dean Heller is the only Republican running for re-election in a*
*state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)*

*Senate Democrats are still defending 10 states that President Donald*
*Trump won in 2016, but six months out from Election Day, the most*
*vulnerable senator remains a Republican.*

*Nevada Sen. Dean Heller no longer faces a primary threat, but he’s the*
*only Republican up for re-election in a state Hillary Clinton won, and*
*in this national environment that’s a tricky place to be.*

*The Democrats’ odds of flipping a few GOP-held open seats in Arizona and*
*Tennessee have increased over the past six months, but this list — like*
*the one we did a year out from Election Day — ranks incumbents most*
*likely to lose — not seats most likely to flip. That means nine of the*
*10 senators are Democrats, with the second and third spots remaining*
*unchanged.*

*North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin III*
*have traded places, with Heitkamp now at fourth and Manchin at fifth.*
*Democrats would have been happy to face Don Blankenship in the West*
*Virginia Senate race, but they’re also not getting Rep. Evan Jenkins,*
*whom they spent nearly $2 million against in the primary.*

*Watch: Iowa’s Blum Now Most Vulnerable House Member, Nelson Moves Up*
*List for Senate*

*The biggest change is Florida Sen. Bill Nelson moving up from eighth to*
*sixth with Gov. Rick Scott’s entry into the race. That pushes Montana*
*Sen. Jon Tester and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown down a spot each to seventh*
*and eighth, respectively.*

*As always, this list is compiled after consultation with strategists*
*from both sides of the aisle and the race ratings from Inside Elections*
*with Nathan L. Gonzales.*

*SENATE1-HELLER*

*Heller remains at the top spot because he’s the only Republican up for*
*re-election in a state Clinton carried in 2016, and Democrats have a*
*favorable national environment this cycle. Heller has one less hurdle*
*with perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian dropping his primary challenge*
*to run for the House, at Trump’s urging. Democrats contend Heller moving*
*toward Trump while Tarkanian was in the race could come back to haunt*
*him. They have coalesced around Rep. Jacky Rosen, who is already up on*
*television. (She does have a self-funding primary challenger.) Rosen*
*raised more than twice as much as Heller in the first quarter of the*
*year, pulling in $2.6 million to Heller’s $1.1 million. But Heller still*
*has a cash on hand advantage.*

*Want insight more often? Get Roll Call in your inbox*

*SENATE2-MCCASKILL*

*Although some Republicans have fretted that likely GOP challenger Josh*
*Hawley wasn’t living up to expectations, McCaskill is still one of the*
*most vulnerable incumbents. Hawley’s fundraising caused some concern,*
*but he also shook up his team, bringing in experienced GOP fundraiser*
*Katie Walsh, according to Politico. Some operatives say Hawley could be*
*hurt by his connection to disgraced Missouri GOP Gov. Eric Greitens, but*
*Hawley’s team says the scandals won’t affect him. Republicans say*
*Missouri is moving to the right, and point to Trump’s continued*
*popularity in the Show-Me State.*

*SENATE3-DONNELLY*

*Former state Rep. Mike Braun, who touts himself as a businessman*
*outsider in the mold of Trump, is taking on the first-term Democratic*
*senator. In a big Trump state, Donnelly’s got his work cut out for him,*
*as Braun — who’s got plenty of his own money — will try to tie him to*
*Washington, much like he did his two primary opponents. But Braun’s*
*state legislative record and business background comes with its own*
*vulnerabilities, and Donnelly has proved willing to support the*
*president at times.*

*SENATE4-HEITKAMP*

*Heitkamp is the only statewide Democratic official in North Dakota, and*
*Republicans believe the state’s shift to the right means she’s in*
*serious trouble this year. Her challenger, GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer, has*
*the advantage of not facing a primary. As the state’s at-large member,*
*he also enjoys high name recognition. Heitkamp does still have a cash on*
*hand advantage with $5.4 million in the bank, compared to Cramer’s $1.9*
*million. Democrats believe Heitkamp has a strong personal brand in the*
*state as an independent lawmaker.*

*SENATE5-MANCHIN*

*Facing state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in November, Manchin’s in*
*for a tough race in a state that went big for Trump. Morrisey will tout*
*his lawsuits against the Obama administration and hammer Manchin on his*
*support for Clinton in 2016. But Morrisey’s not without his own ties to*
*Washington and the pharmaceutical industry, which could complicate the*
*GOP playbook. The senator has a significant cash-on-hand advantage.*

*SENATE6-NELSON*

*The three-term senator moves up the list because of the entrance of Gov.*
*Rick Scott into this race. With statewide name identification and*
*endless personal resources, Scott poses a real threat to Nelson, even in*
*a state that’s more Democratic than the home states of some other*
*senators appearing lower on the list. Nelson ended the first quarter*
*with $10.7 million, while Scott hasn’t had to file a fundraising report*
*yet.*

*SENATE7-TESTER*

*Trump took aim at Tester, even calling on him to resign, over his*
*resistance to the president’s VA nominee. Along with Tester’s vote*
*against a stopgap funding measure that would have reopened the*
*government earlier this year, Republicans think they have a strong case*
*against the former DSCC chairman. Tester’s never taken more than 50*
*percent in his prior Senate races. But it’s also possible that as the*
*senior Democrat on the Veterans Affairs Committee, Tester has helped*
*solidify his own brand in Big Sky Country by doing what he thought was*
*best for veterans. It’s looking like he’ll face fellow flat-top Matt*
*Rosendale, who will likely be attacked as a carpetbagger from Maryland.*
*Tester ended the first quarter with nearly $7 million to Rosendale’s*
*$541,000.*

*SENATE8-BALDWIN*

*Wisconsin has attracted the most outside spending of the Senate races so*
*far, in part because Republicans view Baldwin as vulnerable on issues*
*relating to veterans’ health care. But Democrats are watching for a*
*potentially ugly primary between the two GOP candidates: state Sen. Leah*
*Vukmir and Marine veteran Kevin Nicolson. Baldwin has kept her focus on*
*the general election, airing five television ads so far. Republicans*
*still believe she is very vulnerable and too liberal for the state (she*
*was the only red state Democrat to sign on to Medicare-for-All*
*legislation).*

*SENATE9-BROWN*

*One major change since the last iteration of this list: Rep. James B.*
*Renacci is now the Republican nominee here, not state Treasurer Josh*
*Mandel, as was long expected. Brown’s running for re-election in a state*
*that’s trending away from Democrats, but Renacci — a wealthy congressman*
*and former registered lobbyist — should quiet attacks on Brown for being*
*part of Washington. Although Renacci has plenty of his own resources,*
*Republicans haven’t been impressed with his fundraising. His latest FEC*
*filing shows $4.2 million in the bank to Brown’s $13.3 million.*

*SENATE10-CASEY*

*Republicans and Democrats acknowledge that Casey is one of the least*
*vulnerable Democratic senators running in states Trump carried in 2016.*
*One of Trump’s early allies, GOP Rep. Lou Barletta, appears to be the*
*likely nominee. Casey has broken fundraising records with more than $10*
*million on hand — the most of any Senate candidate in the state’s*
*history according to Casey’s campaign. Barletta had $1.3 million on hand*
*at the end of this year’s first quarter.*

*Graphics by Sara Wise*

*Watch: Which House Races Are the Parties Targeting? Look to the Money,*
*the TV Ad Money*

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*Topics: 2018 at-the-races democrats elections politics republicans*
*Arizona Barack Obama Bill Nelson Business Campaign Finance Campaigns*
*Dean Heller democrats Donald J. Trump DSCC Elections Environment Evan H*
*Jenkins Executive Branch Florida health care Heidi Heitkamp House*
*independents James B Renacci Joe Manchin III Jon Tester Kevin Cramer*
*Keystone XL Pipeline Lobbying Lou Barletta Maryland Medicare Missouri*
*montana Nevada North Dakota*
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