[Rushtalk] Six Months Out: The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators in 2018

John Quayle blueoval57 at verizon.net
Fri May 25 13:09:31 MDT 2018


/*You are totally correct! */


On 5/25/2018 12:57 PM, Tom Matiska wrote:
> No difference between Casey's  voting record and Pocahontas Warren.   Tom
>
>
>
> On Friday, May 25, 2018 10:53 AM, John Quayle <blueoval57 at verizon.net> 
> wrote:
>
>
> /*Thanks, Tom......didn't see his name there. He isn't the pro-life 
> lion his father was, that's for sure. That may be the issue on which 
> he is most vulnerable. Still, in 26 years, his legislative record is 
> abysmal, at best. */
>
> On 5/24/2018 9:17 PM, Tom Matiska wrote:
>> Casey is #10
>> T-Mobile. America's First Nationwide 4G Network
>>
>> John Quayle<blueoval57 at verizon.net> <mailto:blueoval57 at verizon.net>  wrote:
>>
>>> /*Bob Casey should've made this list. Lou Barletta is going to mop the
>>> floor with him!*/
>>>
>>>
>>> On 5/24/2018 9:33 AM, Carl Spitzer {C Juno} wrote:
>>>> *Search*
>>>> *May 21, 2018*
>>>>
>>>> *Politics*
>>>> *Six Months Out: The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators in 2018*
>>>> *Nevada Republican Dean Heller remains in top spot*
>>>> *Posted May 10, 2018 5:05 AM*
>>>> *Simone Pathé*
>>>> *@sfpathe*
>>>> *Blankenship to Run as Third-Party Senate Candidate in WV Who’s Going to*
>>>> *Challenge Karen Handel Without Jon Ossoff? A Clash of Experiences in*
>>>> *Kentucky’s 6th District Democratic Primary*
>>>> *Bridget Bowman*
>>>> *@bridgetbhc*
>>>> *DCCC Raises $11.2 Million in AprilTargeting a Blue Texan: Will National*
>>>> *Democrats Pay a Price?Podcast: Keystone Races Now Set in Keystone State*
>>>>
>>>> *Sen. Dean Heller is the only Republican running for re-election in a*
>>>> *state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)*
>>>>
>>>> *Senate Democrats are still defending 10 states that President Donald*
>>>> *Trump won in 2016, but six months out from Election Day, the most*
>>>> *vulnerable senator remains a Republican.*
>>>>
>>>> *Nevada Sen. Dean Heller no longer faces a primary threat, but he’s the*
>>>> *only Republican up for re-election in a state Hillary Clinton won, and*
>>>> *in this national environment that’s a tricky place to be.*
>>>>
>>>> *The Democrats’ odds of flipping a few GOP-held open seats in Arizona and*
>>>> *Tennessee have increased over the past six months, but this list — like*
>>>> *the one we did a year out from Election Day — ranks incumbents most*
>>>> *likely to lose — not seats most likely to flip. That means nine of the*
>>>> *10 senators are Democrats, with the second and third spots remaining*
>>>> *unchanged.*
>>>>
>>>> *North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin III*
>>>> *have traded places, with Heitkamp now at fourth and Manchin at fifth.*
>>>> *Democrats would have been happy to face Don Blankenship in the West*
>>>> *Virginia Senate race, but they’re also not getting Rep. Evan Jenkins,*
>>>> *whom they spent nearly $2 million against in the primary.*
>>>>
>>>> *Watch: Iowa’s Blum Now Most Vulnerable House Member, Nelson Moves Up*
>>>> *List for Senate*
>>>>
>>>> *The biggest change is Florida Sen. Bill Nelson moving up from eighth to*
>>>> *sixth with Gov. Rick Scott’s entry into the race. That pushes Montana*
>>>> *Sen. Jon Tester and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown down a spot each to seventh*
>>>> *and eighth, respectively.*
>>>>
>>>> *As always, this list is compiled after consultation with strategists*
>>>> *from both sides of the aisle and the race ratings from Inside Elections*
>>>> *with Nathan L. Gonzales.*
>>>>
>>>> *SENATE1-HELLER*
>>>>
>>>> *Heller remains at the top spot because he’s the only Republican up for*
>>>> *re-election in a state Clinton carried in 2016, and Democrats have a*
>>>> *favorable national environment this cycle. Heller has one less hurdle*
>>>> *with perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian dropping his primary challenge*
>>>> *to run for the House, at Trump’s urging. Democrats contend Heller moving*
>>>> *toward Trump while Tarkanian was in the race could come back to haunt*
>>>> *him. They have coalesced around Rep. Jacky Rosen, who is already up on*
>>>> *television. (She does have a self-funding primary challenger.) Rosen*
>>>> *raised more than twice as much as Heller in the first quarter of the*
>>>> *year, pulling in $2.6 million to Heller’s $1.1 million. But Heller still*
>>>> *has a cash on hand advantage.*
>>>>
>>>> *Want insight more often? Get Roll Call in your inbox*
>>>>
>>>> *SENATE2-MCCASKILL*
>>>>
>>>> *Although some Republicans have fretted that likely GOP challenger Josh*
>>>> *Hawley wasn’t living up to expectations, McCaskill is still one of the*
>>>> *most vulnerable incumbents. Hawley’s fundraising caused some concern,*
>>>> *but he also shook up his team, bringing in experienced GOP fundraiser*
>>>> *Katie Walsh, according to Politico. Some operatives say Hawley could be*
>>>> *hurt by his connection to disgraced Missouri GOP Gov. Eric Greitens, but*
>>>> *Hawley’s team says the scandals won’t affect him. Republicans say*
>>>> *Missouri is moving to the right, and point to Trump’s continued*
>>>> *popularity in the Show-Me State.*
>>>>
>>>> *SENATE3-DONNELLY*
>>>>
>>>> *Former state Rep. Mike Braun, who touts himself as a businessman*
>>>> *outsider in the mold of Trump, is taking on the first-term Democratic*
>>>> *senator. In a big Trump state, Donnelly’s got his work cut out for him,*
>>>> *as Braun — who’s got plenty of his own money — will try to tie him to*
>>>> *Washington, much like he did his two primary opponents. But Braun’s*
>>>> *state legislative record and business background comes with its own*
>>>> *vulnerabilities, and Donnelly has proved willing to support the*
>>>> *president at times.*
>>>>
>>>> *SENATE4-HEITKAMP*
>>>>
>>>> *Heitkamp is the only statewide Democratic official in North Dakota, and*
>>>> *Republicans believe the state’s shift to the right means she’s in*
>>>> *serious trouble this year. Her challenger, GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer, has*
>>>> *the advantage of not facing a primary. As the state’s at-large member,*
>>>> *he also enjoys high name recognition. Heitkamp does still have a cash on*
>>>> *hand advantage with $5.4 million in the bank, compared to Cramer’s $1.9*
>>>> *million. Democrats believe Heitkamp has a strong personal brand in the*
>>>> *state as an independent lawmaker.*
>>>>
>>>> *SENATE5-MANCHIN*
>>>>
>>>> *Facing state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in November, Manchin’s in*
>>>> *for a tough race in a state that went big for Trump. Morrisey will tout*
>>>> *his lawsuits against the Obama administration and hammer Manchin on his*
>>>> *support for Clinton in 2016. But Morrisey’s not without his own ties to*
>>>> *Washington and the pharmaceutical industry, which could complicate the*
>>>> *GOP playbook. The senator has a significant cash-on-hand advantage.*
>>>>
>>>> *SENATE6-NELSON*
>>>>
>>>> *The three-term senator moves up the list because of the entrance of Gov.*
>>>> *Rick Scott into this race. With statewide name identification and*
>>>> *endless personal resources, Scott poses a real threat to Nelson, even in*
>>>> *a state that’s more Democratic than the home states of some other*
>>>> *senators appearing lower on the list. Nelson ended the first quarter*
>>>> *with $10.7 million, while Scott hasn’t had to file a fundraising report*
>>>> *yet.*
>>>>
>>>> *SENATE7-TESTER*
>>>>
>>>> *Trump took aim at Tester, even calling on him to resign, over his*
>>>> *resistance to the president’s VA nominee. Along with Tester’s vote*
>>>> *against a stopgap funding measure that would have reopened the*
>>>> *government earlier this year, Republicans think they have a strong case*
>>>> *against the former DSCC chairman. Tester’s never taken more than 50*
>>>> *percent in his prior Senate races. But it’s also possible that as the*
>>>> *senior Democrat on the Veterans Affairs Committee, Tester has helped*
>>>> *solidify his own brand in Big Sky Country by doing what he thought was*
>>>> *best for veterans. It’s looking like he’ll face fellow flat-top Matt*
>>>> *Rosendale, who will likely be attacked as a carpetbagger from Maryland.*
>>>> *Tester ended the first quarter with nearly $7 million to Rosendale’s*
>>>> *$541,000.*
>>>>
>>>> *SENATE8-BALDWIN*
>>>>
>>>> *Wisconsin has attracted the most outside spending of the Senate races so*
>>>> *far, in part because Republicans view Baldwin as vulnerable on issues*
>>>> *relating to veterans’ health care. But Democrats are watching for a*
>>>> *potentially ugly primary between the two GOP candidates: state Sen. Leah*
>>>> *Vukmir and Marine veteran Kevin Nicolson. Baldwin has kept her focus on*
>>>> *the general election, airing five television ads so far. Republicans*
>>>> *still believe she is very vulnerable and too liberal for the state (she*
>>>> *was the only red state Democrat to sign on to Medicare-for-All*
>>>> *legislation).*
>>>>
>>>> *SENATE9-BROWN*
>>>>
>>>> *One major change since the last iteration of this list: Rep. James B.*
>>>> *Renacci is now the Republican nominee here, not state Treasurer Josh*
>>>> *Mandel, as was long expected. Brown’s running for re-election in a state*
>>>> *that’s trending away from Democrats, but Renacci — a wealthy congressman*
>>>> *and former registered lobbyist — should quiet attacks on Brown for being*
>>>> *part of Washington. Although Renacci has plenty of his own resources,*
>>>> *Republicans haven’t been impressed with his fundraising. His latest FEC*
>>>> *filing shows $4.2 million in the bank to Brown’s $13.3 million.*
>>>>
>>>> *SENATE10-CASEY*
>>>>
>>>> *Republicans and Democrats acknowledge that Casey is one of the least*
>>>> *vulnerable Democratic senators running in states Trump carried in 2016.*
>>>> *One of Trump’s early allies, GOP Rep. Lou Barletta, appears to be the*
>>>> *likely nominee. Casey has broken fundraising records with more than $10*
>>>> *million on hand — the most of any Senate candidate in the state’s*
>>>> *history according to Casey’s campaign. Barletta had $1.3 million on hand*
>>>> *at the end of this year’s first quarter.*
>>>>
>>>> *Graphics by Sara Wise*
>>>>
>>>> *Watch: Which House Races Are the Parties Targeting? Look to the Money,*
>>>> *the TV Ad Money*
>>>>
>>>> *Get breaking news alerts and more from Roll Call on your iPhone or your*
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>>>> *Topics: 2018 at-the-races democrats elections politics republicans*
>>>> *Arizona Barack Obama Bill Nelson Business Campaign Finance Campaigns*
>>>> *Dean Heller democrats Donald J. Trump DSCC Elections Environment Evan H*
>>>> *Jenkins Executive Branch Florida health care Heidi Heitkamp House*
>>>> *independents James B Renacci Joe Manchin III Jon Tester Kevin Cramer*
>>>> *Keystone XL Pipeline Lobbying Lou Barletta Maryland Medicare Missouri*
>>>> *montana Nevada North Dakota*
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>>>>
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>>>> *https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/six-months-10-vulnerable-senators-2018*
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>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
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