[Rushtalk] Very Interesting reading

Carl Spitzer cwsiv at juno.com
Sat Oct 6 15:55:45 MDT 2018

-------- Forwarded Message --------
From: Scott Dugan <Scott at rsdugan.com>



This comes from a bright long-term Wall Street guy via The Rant who
provides an interesting take on the markets and the political scene…

If you have been reading The Rant for a long time, you know I have been
saying the world is changed and very high risk, and the black swans are

We just entered a major inflection point in history



· I have been reporting that in Europe the right wing is ascendant. Le
Pen is likely to win the French election next year.

        · The EU is going to come apart once that happens and now with
        Trump in power that trend will accelerate.
        · The EU will realign into blocs and there will be massive
        turmoil as things sort out over the next several years.
        · The French will go back to the Franc.
        · Germany will shift right as the refugees create social, crime
        and fiscal issues.
        · As ISIS gets destroyed they will try to wage war in Europe
        thru more terror attacks.
        · You do not want to invest in Europe. The world is rapidly
        shifting right and the changes will be generational.
        · Brussels will be neutered.
        · NATO countries will invest much more in defense and will be
        forced to build up their armies.
        Here is what I believe will happen in the US.
        Trump has two years to make massive changes and this is what I
        believe they may be.
        · Obama-care is replaced with some type of more free market plan
        that Ryan already has suggested.
        · Corporate taxes will be reduced to maybe 15% or maybe a bit
        · Personal taxes will be reduced.
        · All executive orders by Obama will be reversed.
        · Most of the massive regulation Obama put in place will be
        · The Supreme Court will get a conservative justice right away
        and Ginsburg will try to hang on until she dies in office to try
        to deny him her seat. She will not last 4 years.
        · Trump will get at least 2 and maybe 3 judge picks.
        · The Supreme court will decide by what strict constructionists
        think the constitution says 'not' the left wing politics of
        · It will be much more pro-business.
        · Anti-trust cases will go away.
        · Sanctuary cities will lose funding and San Francisco and
        Berkley and Boulder will go nuts.
        · The border will somehow be secured and Mexico will not pay.
        Border Patrol will be materially increased.
        · Gang members will be arrested and deported but everyone else
        will get to stay here.
        · Ryan will stay as Speaker.
        Trump will do what any good NY real estate guy does, he will get
        up from the table until he gets a deal close to what he wants.
        That is key to a lot of what Trump will be able to do.
        If you listened carefully to what he said, it was I will
        redo NAFTA and will walk from the table if I do not get what we
        There will be a revised NAFTA but Mexico will suffer a lot
        because many US companies will not move plants there until they
        see what revised NAFTA says.   They will also not defy Trump
        early on
        and risk his wrath.....Mexico takes a big hit.
        The Pentagon and US defense contractors are big winners.
        Defense spending will ramp up by huge numbers.  The military
        will add over 200,000 people over the next two years.  Weapons
        spend will dramatically increase.  This will add a lot of new
        jobs between the additional military and the added jobs in
        defense plants.
        Private equity will take a big hit with carried interest going
        away and this will make a small part payment for the tax cuts.
        Estate taxes will mostly go away.
        Cops will be respected again and racial strife will end as Trump
        tries new ideas to build charter schools, and rebuild the
        There will be no more honoring the families of the thugs like
        Brown and Travon the way Obama and Hilary did.
        He will Honor the Cops.
        The downtrend in crime will get reinstated.
        Transgender anything will go away.
        The military will be told to go win wars and not be social
        experiments with transgender soldiers.
        Rules of engagement will be changed to kill the enemy instead of
        cater to political correctness.
        There will be an infusion of another 5,000 US soldiers into Iraq
        and more into Syria to back up the destruction of ISIS.
        The bombing campaign will be stepped up to what it should be.
        By March ISIS will have been defeated!!
        They will try to carry out major terror attacks, but now the
        world will call Islamic terror what it is and there will be a
        more aggressive fight and coordination.
        Putin and Trump are from the same mother and will get along.
        Putin is like all bullies - he will realise he cannot push Trump
        around like he does Obama and he will work out a modus vivendi
        because he knows he has at least 4 more years to deal with a new
        US president.
        Bullies back off if they find they cannot intimidate the other
        The Iran nuke deal will get torn up and Iran will find itself
        back under sanctions.
        The Germans will scream, but Merkel is now in a very weak
        position so she will not be able to stop Trump from re-imposing
        them at least for US companies and anyone wanting to do business
        in the US especially banks. This will be world changing.
        The Saudis won big on this, Israel won huge.
        Developers win because the EPA will be defanged.
        Climate change legislation is dead and the Paris pact will be
        College campuses will no longer have the threat that unless they
        find a bunch of young guys to charge with sexual whatever they
        lose funds.
        PC on college campuses will be pressured to end although for
        quite awhile there will be protests and other such things.
        Today professors are telling students they do not have to take
        exams because they are so upset......Give me a break!!
        This is exactly what is wrong with American colleges today.
        It is just telling kids boo-hoo if you feel bad you get excused
        from work.
        Paul Ryan has already reached out to heal the rift in the GOP
        and they have already planned a quick special session to pass
        repeal of Obama-care and undo the regulations and do other
        things quickly.
        Ryan will remain as speaker.
        The SCOTUS vacancy will be filled immediately.  
        Most Important, the entire world is about to change.
        We will see if for good or bad but change it will in massive
        The tide of anti-socialist, anti PC, anti-diversity,
        anti-entitlement, anti-establishment of the past 70 years is
        washing across the world and Trump is simply the ultimate
        example of what had already been happening with Brexit and in
        As far as the Stock Market - it will now rise and keep going.
        Taxes will get cut,
        the Supreme Court will not be activist, 
        Anti-trust will end,
        some type of infrastructure program will be instituted,
        defense spending will jump,
        banks will be free to lend,
        regulations will be drastically reduced,
        and corporate profits will rise.
        Go all in now!!
        You already see the market reaction is up after the shock.   The
        Wall Street elite misplaced their bets, Hollywood and the press
        way over played their hands, and college professors and
        administrators will have to get over it.
        Hillary and crew go to jail.
        I started Rant in late 2007 when I told a tiny group of friends
        the market was going to crash and nobody believed me.  I sold
        out of the market in May 2007.  My broker thought I was nuts.
        In January 2008 I told people at the big hotel conference that
        the hotel industry was going to crash in 2008.   They told me I
        was stupid.   I began emailing my little group of friends with
        these kind of thoughts and so the Rant was launched.
        They encouraged me to expand that, and so began the Rant.  In
        August 2008 I told a few friends driving to a golf outing
        that Lehman would go bankrupt, and nobody believed me.   So now
        I said Trump and the Republicans would win, and few believed me.
        In fact one of my good friends of 50 years bet me $100.
        So how did I do that.   Not smarts.   I have no data base.
        Difference is, I spend a lot of time observing trends and
        traveling, and talking to real people on the ground all across
        the country at all walks of life.   I do not read the NY Times
        nor do I watch NBC or CBS or CNN.   I talk to lots of real
        people who are doing whatever they do day to day and try to
        glean tidbits and connect the dots.
        Any of you can do the same and probably better than me.  I just
        try to disconnect myself from what the talking heads are saying,
        and the latest fad of political thinking, and try to see it from
        a distance with some objectivity.
        To my Democrat friends—Suck it up –The world just changed
        dramatically - we will see if for better or worse.
        You might want to tuck this away for a couple of years and then
        see how close 'The Rant' came.






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